No skill machine market size estimate comes from a census of devices. Most of these machines are not overseen by any regulator that collects data, so every figure is modeled. The casino industry's trade group, vendors, state fiscal offices and commercial research firms each count different things in different ways, which is why the numbers vary so widely.
A reader looking up the size of the market will find national counts from about 580,000 to more than 625,000 machines, "skill gaming" reports placing 2026 between roughly $24 billion and $53 billion, and state counts that change depending on the speaker. Here is where those numbers come from.
Who produces the numbers
The most-cited national figures come from the American Gaming Association (AGA), which represents the casino industry. The AGA is an industry source, not a regulator. In an August 13, 2025 release, it estimated "more than 625,000 machines now operating across bars, restaurants, and convenience stores," a 7.7% increase since 2022. It said the machines "generated $30.3 billion in revenue" and "cost states $9.5 billion in lost tax revenue." AGA CEO Bill Miller said illegal operators are "siphoning billions in tax revenue from state governments." Casino.org described the AGA as the gaming industry's "preeminent lobbying arm."
Vendors offer their own company-level and state-level figures. The Philadelphia Inquirer reported on July 10, 2026 that Pace-O-Matic's machines produced $525 million in gross revenue in Pennsylvania in 2024. The same report found that both sides have a financial stake in the debate. Pace-O-Matic spent $8.4 million on lobbying over five years, and an affiliated PAC reported $9 million since 2021. Parx Casino spent about $1.3 million on lobbying over five years.
How the AGA's estimates are built
According to the 2025 release, The Innovation Group prepared the analysis for the AGA. It was "based largely on a survey of 2,454 U.S adults" about their gambling behavior and "their observations of unregulated gaming machines," combined with public data on legal gaming markets. USBets reported that the 2022 study surveyed nearly 5,300 adults. In both years, machine counts and revenue were modeled from survey responses, not taken from device inventories.
The 2022 report, as reported by Covers, estimated 580,651 unregulated machines, or 40% of all gaming machines in casinos and slot routes. It assumed an estimated win rate of nearly 25% for unlicensed machines, compared with 7.16% for Nevada slots. Casino.org reported that the 2022 estimate included $109.2 billion in coin-in and nearly $27 billion in revenue. That revenue is roughly a quarter of the coin-in figure, so the result depends heavily on the win-rate assumption.
The definition problem
Commercial "skill gaming market" reports measure something else. Fortune Business Insights estimates $46.39 billion in 2025 and $52.71 billion in 2026. Its scope covers real-money platforms, including board games, poker and puzzles, and the key players it lists are online firms such as Skillz, AviaGames and Triumph. Global Growth Insights puts 2026 at $24.25 billion. Neither report measures cash-prize terminals in retail locations, so neither should be cited as the size of that market.
Pennsylvania: one state, many numbers
In May 2025 the Allegheny Institute wrote that "no one knows how much revenue skill games generate as they are not regulated by any agency that would collect data." It cited an AGA estimate of 67,000 machines in Pennsylvania. By June 2026, Spotlight PA reported "an estimated 70,000 machines," citing the state Office of Attorney General. Industry-backed bills proposed a 50,000-terminal cap, and Gov. Josh Shapiro proposed 40,000.
Revenue projections differed even more. They ranged from about $300 million a year under Rep. Danilo Burgos's flat-fee bill to as much as $2.1 billion a year by the end of the decade under the Shapiro administration's projection. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) projected up to $1.2 billion. The Inquirer reported that Shapiro's proposed 52% tax was projected at "almost $800 million in the first year." WITF reported that the IFO estimates $47,000 a year per machine. HB2213 and SB1079 would set a $500 fee per terminal and a 50,000-machine statewide limit.
In June 2026, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court ruled that skill games are slot machines under state law and stayed enforcement for 120 days. CDC Gaming reported on October 13, 2026 that lawmakers had not passed a regulatory scheme before the October 14 deadline, that HB2213 and SB1079 had stalled, and that State Police warned games operating after the deadline were "subject to immediate seizure."
Missouri: an interested party's estimate
During legislative debate in Missouri, a convenience store owner estimated "30,000 to 40,000 unregulated machines across Missouri," according to the Missouri Independent via Spectrum News (April 2, 2026). That figure comes from a participant in the debate, not from an official count. Separately, on February 13, 2026, the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Missouri held that Torch Electronics' machines are "gambling devices" under Missouri law, according to a Thompson Coburn analysis.
Texas: no data on machine counts
Texas's own budget office has acknowledged the data gap. The Legislative Budget Board's fiscal note on HB 1385 (84th Legislature, April 20, 2015) stated: "There is no current data to base an estimate of either the number of machines that would be licensed or how many of the machines would be located outside a municipality." It called the state fiscal impact "indeterminate." National survey estimates cannot be scaled down to produce a reliable Texas count, and figures from Pennsylvania or Missouri say nothing about machines in Texas.
How to read a market figure
This is an editorial recommendation, not a sourced requirement: before citing or relying on any figure, ask four questions.
-
Who sponsored the estimate, and what is their stake in the policy debate?
-
What method does it use: a consumer survey, registration data or a fiscal projection?
-
What does it count as a machine, and does it include online play?
-
What year and which jurisdiction does it cover?
Attribute every number to its source. When supplier diligence is the next step, the vendor comparison checklist helps you record questions and evidence. It does not confirm legal approval, vendor verification or machine profitability.
Until states require registration or reporting, national skill machine figures will remain modeled estimates from interested parties, not verified industry data.
Related reading
-
Skill Game Bills 2026: Where Pennsylvania, Michigan and Other States Stand as Sessions Wind Down
-
Pennsylvania Skill Games Ban Enforcement Begins After Supreme Court Ruling
-
Skill Game Enforcement News 2026: Pennsylvania's Deadline Passes, Virginia Looks to 2027
Sources
Reporting is for information, not legal advice. A vendor listing or the term skill game does not establish a machine's legality in any jurisdiction.
AI assistance is disclosed where used. Consult primary sources and qualified counsel for legal decisions.